Blackjack can be one of the most fun and profitable casino games if you know what you're doing. And by that I mean using the right strategy, bankroll and approach. Because without them it will just be a whole lot of guessing--and a quick way to lose your money--very quickly.
**Note: _The following Strategic Research Laboratory Blackjack experiment was conducted by Doug Polk, a professional poker player and one of the top experts on optimal blackjack play. You can see Doug's other articles for card counters here."
How to Win at Blackjack
How do you win at Blackjack? The short answer is strategy + card counting = advantage play + good money management.
Let’s take a look at each of those components in more detail so you have all the Blackjack secrets revealed to you.
Step 1: Learn Blackjack Strategy
Strategy cards like this are essential when learning basic strategy in blackjack.
The first step to becoming a winning Blackjack player is to use perfect strategy. This means never making any decisions based on what has already happened or what you think might happen.
Instead you always make the mathematically correct decision based solely on your card and the dealer's upcard.
This seems simple enough but there are over 500 possible decisions that can come up during a standard eight-deck game of Blackjack. Trying to keep track of the "right" move for each situation without the help of a chart would drive anyone crazy.
That’s why every Blackjack player should start out with a cheat sheet that lists all the possible decisions based on basic math that was worked out decades ago. This is commonly referred to as “basic strategy.”
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Step 2: Practice Perfect Basic Strategy
You might be surprised to find out how many people don't follow the basics. Especially the part about not counting cards (more on that later).
In my informal poll of readers, Blackjack coaches and dealers, I'd estimate that less than 1% of players use optimal basic strategy. Meaning they regularly make every decision correctly without deviation.
And that includes seasoned players who may have been visiting the tables for years or even professionals grinds like myself, who make our living from card games. Amateur players are far more likely to deviate from proper strategy, often in very obvious ways.
One example is doubling down on hard 11 instead of simply hitting. Another common mistake is surrendering too much or too little. Or standing with a total of 16 against the dealer’s 10.
These mistakes may seem minor but they add up to a significant advantage for the player who uses perfect strategy and takes disadvantage of his opponent's mistakes.
Incidentally this effect is also seen in tennis where amateurs tend to hit the ball farther low because they snap their wrap around follow through. Hitting the ball low gives them a better chance of forcing error off their opponent's racquet, which is often less precise.
casino online usIf everyone at the table is playing optimally, though, you absolutely need to use basic strategy to avoid negative EV plays.
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Step 3: Learn When to Double Down in Blackjack
Doubling down is an important aspect of blackjack strategy
After mastering basic strategy, the next thing you want to focus on is when to double down.
Many strategies exist for when to double but they all have one thing in common: taking EV+ double downs. That means doubling down on your hard 10 against a 12, for example, while declining to double down on 11 vs 10.
The reason for this is that the EV loss from the second scenario is greater than the first. So any strategy that tells you to double down on 11 versus 10 is wrong and will lose you money.
There are some subtle differences between different doubling strategies but they all involve taking advantageous double down opportunities. Unfortunately these opportunities are few and far between at most tables so nailing down your hard strategy is still the most important thing you can do.
Step 4: Split the Right Way in Blackjack
Splitting aces and eights is always a plus.
The final piece of the basic strategy puzzle is splitting. As with doubling, there are numerous split strategies but they all involve taking positive expectation splits. For example, always splitting aces and eights.
As with the other aspects of blackjack, you want to take any favorable split that the house rules allow. However, there are some marginal situations where it’s unclear whether to split or not. In those cases it’s best to err on the side of splitting.
Once again, if all players at your table are using perfect basic strategy, you absolutely need to use the correct split strategy to avoid giving the house an edge. But since hardly anyone does, the correct thing to do is focus on having perfect strategy and forget about the details of split strategy.
Further Reading:
Can Blackjack Be Beat Without Counting Cards?
Lab roulette anyone?
I get emails on a regular basis from readers asking me if there’s any way to beat Blackjack without counting cards. The question usually goes something like this:
- Hey Douglas, I really enjoy playing blackjack, but I've decided to give up counting cards due to paranoia (decks are changed too often, security guards everywhere, etc...), is there ANY other way to gain an edge over the house besides counting cards? I'm willing to change my playing style drastically if necessary. Now I know that perfect basic strategy is the way to go, but is there anything else I can do?
First off let me address the elephant in the room. From a security standpoint card counting is by far the safest way for an amateur to try to beat the casino. While it is true that cars changes and security is tighter these days, it’s pretty much impossible for a casino to cheat you out of your count unless they catch you colluding with another player.
Incidentally this is why you should never count cards at low stakes. If a casino catches you and bans you from the game for counting, it had better be worth your while to find a new count. Otherwise you’re just shooting yourself in the foot by limiting your sample size unnecessarily.
But putting security concerns aside, the answer is no -- there is no other way to gain an edge by changing your playing style. Any system that doesn’t involve changing bets based on the count cannot produce a positive expectation.
The reason is that the deck composition is completely random when it comes to blackjack. All 52 card are shuffled thoroughly between hands and the order is totally irrelevant to the outcome of each hand.
Imagine that you’re playing roulette but instead of a wheel, the croupier holds a random number generator that spits out three digit numbers. You have to guess whether the thousands place will be 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 and you win even money if you’re right.
Could you develop a system to beat this game? Nope. There’s no way to gather information about the previous numbers or the ones that are coming to gain an edge. Each new set of three digits is completely independent of the last.
That’s exactly what the deck is like in blackjack. Every hand is an independent event with the same expected value (-0.5%) and there is no way to gather information through playing to improve your odds.
Counting works not because skilled players can distinguish between easy and hard hands but because they can predict how difficult the remaining hands will be. And adjust their bets accordingly.
What is Card Counting in Blackjack?
Card counting is the only way to earn an edge in blackjack according to the science.
So we’ve established that the only way to earn an edge in blackjack is with card counting. This may seem counterintuitive since the goal of counting cards is to raise your bet when the remaining cards are favorable, containing more aces and 10s.
If each hand is an independent event then shouldn’t it matter whether the deck is rich in aces or poor?
No it doesn’t. The reason counting works is not because valued cards become easier to get as the shoe progresses. It’s because clustering of aces and 10s becomes more likely as you use up the ones that were shuffled into the deck before the start of the hand.
More specifically, the independent events that are each -0.5% are the rounds, not the hands within the round.
Here’s what I mean. Imagine that you’re dealing out a freshly shuffled deck. You and your friend each take one 11-handed blackjack shoe and deal yourself every hand until you reach the end of your shoe.
Let’s say that you use a card counter to ensure that each of your hands is played with the optimal amount of deviation (zero). This means that on average you and your friend will both lose 0.5% of your starting stack per shoe.
Now suppose that instead of using a card counter, you dealt each hand with a deviation of 1. Once again you and your friend each deal yourself every hand until you reach the end of your shoe.
In this case, because you are making worse decisions on average, you will lose more than 1% of your stack per shoe. Your friend, being a perfect counter, will lose exactly 0.5%.
Notice that it didn’t matter whether you dealt the hands or your friend did. What mattered was the total amount of deviation introduced into the round, not the deviation of each individual hand.
If someone tried to introduce a card counting system that didn’t change bets, it wouldn’t work.
How Do You Count Cards in Blackjack?
So now that we've established that betting changes based on the count are needed to turn basic math into profit, how do you actually count cards?
Every system will assign a point value to one, several, or all of the cards 2-6, 2-6 and Aces. Typically the values are added together and kept as a running count.
For example say you assign a +1 value to cards 2-6. Then when the fourth card of spades comes out, you subtract three(because there are three less favorable cards in the deck). But when a 5 comes out you add one. At the end of the shoe you add up your running count for the shoe to get the total count for that shoe.
What you’re looking for are cards that make blackjack more probable. Cards 2-6 and Aces increase the probability of busts in the dealer's hand and blackjacks (or improved hands) in your own.
Best NJ Online Poker Sites - Updated for 2023Cards 7-10 decrease the probability of achieving a score of 17 or higher in the dealer's hand and makes it more likely that he will hit soft 17 and stand on hard totals under 18.
Some counting systems include the 7-10s because they also affect the running count. But since the change in probability from these cards is small and in the house's favor, including them in the count actually weakens your edge compared to leaving them out.
Here's a quick video from Rougeau's Mastering Blackjack detailing how to count cards in blackjack:
Is it Legal to Count Cards in Blackjack?
Movies like Rain Man and 21 have brought a lot attention to card counting in recent decades. Casinos have responded by training their floor personnel and implementing rules designed to spot and stop card counters.
Does this mean that counting cards is illegal or dangerous? Not at all. First off, it’s important to understand that casinos cannot legally ban you from playing for any reason except behaving illegally (cheating/collusion), behaving illegally (drunkenness/disorderly conduct), or failing to meet the minimum age requirement.
They cannot boot you from the table because you’re a winner or because you’re a loser. They also cannot offer you incentive to leave or inducement to stay, beyond the normal comps offered to all players.
In practice things can get uncomfortable for successful counters. Dealers may speed up their deal, slow it down, cut your bet spread or refuse to pay off your chips in an attempt to draw the attention of a floor person. Floor managers may accuse you of infractions like not keeping your hand behind the rail or buying in for less than the maximum allowed amount.
Want to learn card counting? Check out our guide on .
What Is a Good Bankroll for Blackjack?
Bankroll management is critical when counting cards in Blackjack.
The most important thing to do when facing this kind of harassment is to remain calm and collect evidence. Insist that the dealer apologize and explain what they did wrong. Get the names of the floor personnel you speak to and take notes on what they say.
Ultimately the casinos are afraid of lawsuits from high-stakes players who feel that they were treated unfairly. Having a large bankroll and detailed records of abuse will insulate you from most problems at the tables.
Speaking of bankroll management, that’s the next most important topic after counting. You need to bring a bankroll that is at least 200 ratings (called a count in the trade) of the game you want to play. So if you’re playing a game where a positive count is +10, you should plan on having a bankroll of at least $2,000 x 10 or $20,000.
Of course most games aren’t that generous so you may be able to get away with less. But having a smaller bankroll means that you’re at greater risk of going broke before you earn enough profits to retire on.
Each player must decide for themselves how large of a safety net they’d like to have while they’re playing. Keep in mind that having a larger bankroll will let you survive longer periods of bad card luck, which lowers your variance and increases your expected hourly rate.
Also remember that earning a living from card counting is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s a race to see who can avoid going broke first so conserve your energy and endure.
Further Reading:
Blackjack Secrets: Putting it All Together
So those are the three key elements required to successfully beat the modern Vegas blackjack game. Use perfect basic strategy, count cards and manage your money wisely.
Unfortunately mastering all three of these skills is harder than it looks. Even players who have attended classes and read books on blackjack and card counting often fail to put it all together at the table.
Just knowing the values of the cards is not sufficient; you also need to apply the count quickly and accurately enough to bet the proper amount. Additionally you must maintain accurate basic strategy knowledge while focusing on playing within your betting range.
Oh, and one more thing: You have to be able to do all of this while observing the right outward appearance of a gambling. This means keeping your eyes forward when not making playing decisions, maintaining friendly small talk with the other players and avoiding any signs that you’re using a system.
Incidentally this is also one of the reasons why card counting is currently the best method for amateurs to try to beat the casino. Unlike shuffling machines, shuffle tracking requires you to closely watch the dealer and dancing of the cards in front of you.
Later I’ll discuss some methods for simplifying card counting, but nothing that approaches the ease of use and safety of counting cards at the table.
Simplified Blackjack Counting System
To help with counting, Rougeau recommends a simplified count called the Key Card Method. The idea is to focus on a small number of critical cards that have the biggest impact on the running count. Specifically you just assign a +1 to all aces and –1 to all 2s–6s.
10s and faces can be assigned a value of zero or +1, although I prefer +1 because it strengthens the late-shoe advantage. Aces are counted because they can form 11-point hands with any 10, which are the most valuable type of hand in blackjack.
2s–6s are also counted because they increase the probability of the dealer busting, improving your payoff when you stand on 12–16 versus his total.
Lucky Land Slots Tips - How to Win + Game ReviewBy focusing on just five cards out of 13, the Key Card Method is much easier to perform than a traditional count while sacrificing very little in terms of accuracy.
When counting with the Key Cards you can simply keep a running count of the number of units you’ve seen of each kind. So every ace you see increases the count by one and every 2–6 does likewise.
At the end of the count you simply multiply the count for aces and 2–6s respectively to get the overall count for the shoe. If you assigned +1 to 2–6s you would divide the total count for these cards by two to get the final count for the shoe. For example:
- There are 4 aces and a total of 40 2–6s for a running count of +40. Using the simpler counting method where all 2–6s and 10s get a +1, the count would be +50 with no adjustments at the end. Either way the count is +1 per deck remaining so your betting ratio would be 1.5x.
Using the Key Card Method will make it faster and easier to count the cards so you can focus on playing perfectly and managing your bankroll.
Blackjack Bet Spread
Your betting ratio is the most important variable in determining your expected value per unit. For example, if your betting ratio is 1.5X and your usual bet is $10, then your increased bets would be $15 and $20. If you have a losing count, -0.5%, and are betting $10 per hand, you will lose 50 cents per hand on average.
But if you have a winning count, +0.5%, and are betting $20 per hand, you will win an average of $1 per hand. So changing your bet spread from 1X to 2X has increased your EV from $0.20 to $1, a difference of $0.80.
Blackjack bet spreading is critical to making a profit.
This calculation assumes that your play deviates slightly from perfect basic strategy to the tune of 10 units per hand on average. With perfect play the house has an edge of -0.5% or $0.50/hand, but your altered play costs you an additional $0.50 per hand.
Adjusting for both factors gives us the -0.2% figure quoted on the site. Incidentally, bringing your play up to perfection would boost your EV by $0.30/$10 if you’re counting correctly. Thus the combination of perfect basic strategy and a correct betting ratio yields an expected value of +0.5% or $0.50/hand.
Is Card Counting in Blackjack Legal?
As mentioned above, casinos can’t kick you to the curb just for counting cards. However, they do have some tools at their disposal to discourage players from using a card-counting advantage play blackjack.
First, most casinos will not allow you to buy in for less than a multiple of their smallest bet. For example, if their lowest bet is $5, they may require you to buy in for a minimum of 100 units, worth $500.
This rule is designed to prevent players from using the “zen” counting method, where the player keeps card values to within one by betting only the minimum and avoiding any mathematical necessity to exceed the table limit.
With the zen counting method, a player can negate the advantages of a deep positive count by merely lowering their bet back to the minimum. By requiring a large buy-in, the player is forced to cross a betting threshold multiple times to take full advantage of his count.
Unfortunately for the casinos, requiring a large buy-in also exposes them to huge swings in bankroll from hand to hand and from day to day. This is why most big count players rarely show a smile or an emotional response to huge wins or losses. We know that a single shoe can easily swing $10,000 or more and that the only rational response is calm endurance.
Another tactic used by casinos to combat card counting in Blackjack is shuffling. Whereas in the old days dealers would change the deck after every hand, today’s card rooms will routinely reshuffle earlier in the shoe at a count of +3 or +2.
While this does make it somewhat more difficult to count cards, it also decreases the house edge. Since the main cause of decline in the count is the reshuffling of cards, reducing the number of original cards dealt reduces the advantage of the player as well.
Is Card Counting in Blackjack Really Worth It?
Is it worth it?
In my experience the take of the shoe varies widely from table to table and even from shift to shift with the same dealer. Some dealers seem determined to waste as few cards as possible while others appear to be trying to signal for helicopters with the amount of scraping they do.
texas holdem poker unblockedThe single most lucrative blackjack situation I’ve ever encountered came from such a dealer. She dealt 11 successive aces, all of them to me, before the casinos stepped in and transferred her to a poker room.
On the subject of multiple deck play, there’s an urban legend among gamblers that casinos use “automatic shuffling machines” to foil card counters. According to this theory, the cards are shuffled whenever the dealer finishes dealing the sixth deck.
Supposedly the M.S. is connected to the blackjack table and random numbers are transmitted via phone line to ensure that no counter can gain an edge. While it would be difficult to verify this claim without direct access to a casino, I can report that I haven’t seen any evidence of it in dozens of weeks of play in Las Vegas.
If anything, the reverse appears to be true. On several occasions I witnessed dealers changing the decks after only four or five decks, supposedly due to shuffling tracks being visible. I believe that most casinos use shuffle tracks made from a special plastic material that makes them nearly invisible below the felt row.
However, these materials are not available to the general public and as a result players with no ill intent sometimes suspect each other of cheating. I’ve had deals interrupted on several occasions for this reason and have even been accused of having a shuffle track myself.
My solution to this problem is to wear suits without belt buckles, which allows me to tuck the end of the track into my pants and continue playing without missing a beat. Just kidding … sorta.
Ultimately the question is: Is it worth it? Blackjack offers the strongest advantage of any casino game and with careful play, counting, and bankroll management amateurs stand a decent shot of making money in the long run.
Other forms of card counting in poker, for instance, are considerably more complicated and risky. Of course your results will vary wildly depending upon your native skill level, natural count, and luck. But if you’re interested in pursuing blackjack as a steady source of income, consider signing up for academic blackjack courses via the link below.
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